Global Worries, Local Horizons
Perjantaina 30. marraskuuta 2007
Today I went to listen to what some of the highest ranking industrial CEOs in Finland think of the climate change. The think tank EVA had first asked them to write their thoughts for a report that was published today and then appear at the seminar together with Jorma Ollila, the chairman of Nokia and Shell boards, and with professor of environmental change Atte Korhola from Helsinki University.
The combined message of these gentlemen was quite clear: a lot is being done, Finnish companies are active and decent, but this does not matter much. The emissions will grow and we are dependent on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future. The big challenge is China and it will not commit to serious reductions of its carbon emissions unless the US does the same. Mr. Ollila said that he has high hopes that in Bali, at the UN Climate Change Conference that starts next Monday, a process will begin that leads to The US and China finally committing to an agreement on reducing their emissions.
Meanwhile the carbon emissions are growing faster than in the scientists’ worst case scenarios. This means that by the end of this century in most places it will be 4 degrees warmer and in the polar regions possibly 8 degrees warmer than it is today. And there is almost nothing we can do the prevent this from happening.
Listening to all of this against the recent worries that people may not spend enough this Christmas to prevent us from sliding into a recession, of recent Finnish tax breaks to huge diesel cars, of the EU confusing reducing carbon emissions with enforcing the usage of renewable energy sources (that may increase carbon emissions), one feels helpless. It’s like being in an unprotected orgy and knowing that most of the people present already have the big disease with a little name.
The future will be different. It will be smaller. No huge cars or houses. It will be more local. Travel, whether to work or to the Bahamas will be very expensive, probably regulated. Stuff will also be more local. We can’t ship goods all around the globe the way we do today. The one thing that will become more global is politics. Even the EU is a small player, the world has come together to meet the challenges. The future will also be much more wired. Since we can’t travel in person, we will travel and meet in cyberspace.
It is going to take a lot of adapting. The two things I look forward to is more sailboats and more trains. I have a soft spot for both.